Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaaba…0f8f
sports · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs San Francisco Giants 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 −$6 -30%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $10 −$6 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$14
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $4 45m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 20¢ $4 46m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $10 55m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $10 55m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $10 58m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $5 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $4 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins SELL Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $4 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -43.9% -49.3% 17% 17% -40.9%
≤30d 6 -43.9% -49.3% 17% 17% -40.9%
≤90d 6 -43.9% -49.3% 17% 17% -40.9%
all 6 -43.9% -49.3% 17% 17% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 17% -40.9%
10% -54.1% 17% -46.5%
15% -58.6% 17% -51.7%
20% -62.6% 17% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.06 · official $4.06 (match) · 14 history records