Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaabb…daf3 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,328 (+17%) realized +$1,068 · open +$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%30W / 94L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$438
14 days−$748
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,312
sports 4% −$160
weather 1% −$22
crypto 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -90.5% -91.4% 4% 4% -53.4%
≤30d 81 -62.4% -66.0% 15% 14% -24.6%
≤90d 124 -22.0% -29.4% 24% 20% -0.2%
all 124 -22.0% -29.4% 24% 20% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 20% -0.2%
10% -36.2% 19% -9.7%
15% -42.3% 17% -18.5%
20% -48.0% 16% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$22 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$1,068
Unrealized+$260
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses30 / 94
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 79
History coverage76d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 54¢ $201 $450 +$249 (+124%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $204 −$177 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $203 −$172 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $93 47h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $76 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $124 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $79 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $162 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $9 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $5 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $5 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $5 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.40 · official $510.40 (match) · 546 history records