Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaabb…5554 sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (757 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,812 (+3%) realized +$3,801 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate63%47W / 28L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,250per market
Trades / day757.2pace
Fees−$1,192est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$5,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$2,200
sports 42% +$527
world 3% −$56
crypto 1% +$860
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (757 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +55.0% +40.3% 63% 12% -5.8%
≤30d 75 +55.0% +40.3% 63% 12% -5.8%
≤90d 75 +55.0% +40.3% 63% 12% -5.8%
all 75 +55.0% +40.3% 63% 12% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover757.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.3% 12% -5.8%
10% +26.8% 8% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here +14.6% 7% -23.1%
20% +3.4% 4% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,696) neutral
Persistence
early +116% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$11 · ×7.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.97 per $1 lost it wins $13.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5,654
Realized+$3,801
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses47 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,192
Open positions16
Markets (closed)75 / 91
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$1,250
Trades / day757.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 57¢ $1,146 $1,156 +$10 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $1,008 $1,022 +$14 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $928 $920 −$8 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $768 $769 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $699 $699 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $488 $488 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 70¢ 70¢ $316 $318 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 44¢ $176 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $85 $74 −$10 (-12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 59¢ 58¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 76¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 87¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,660 $0 +0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,519 −$31 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,472 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $340 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 18 $185 +$4 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $400 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,248 +$12 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $516 +$12 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,522 −$24 -0%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $626 +$8 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 18 $1,456 +$28 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $352 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $296 +$8 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,129 −$28 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1,353 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,520 +$28 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,376 +$4 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $472 +$4 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $432 +$8 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $472 +$8 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $328 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,184 +$16 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $464 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $905 −$22 -2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,660 −$1 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $548 +$8 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3,900 −$56 -1%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,940 −$28 -1%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,696 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $176 +$4 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $760 +$4 +0%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,048 −$32 -2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,492 +$270 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,264 +$32 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,848 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,752 +$12 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,252 +$572 +25%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,196 −$8 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,576 +$12 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $896 +$41 +5%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $656 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,184 +$22 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,320 +$24 +2%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $707 +$11 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $140 +$4 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,356 +$24 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $916 +$4 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,610 +$330 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $314 0m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $11 0m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $24 0m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $120 25m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $70 25m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 26m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $0 29m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $0 32m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $16 32m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 36m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $384 38m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $28 41m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $196 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $196 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $196 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $196 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $175 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $63 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $178 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $332 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $332 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $332 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $332 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $332 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $150 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,654.24 · official $5,653.08 (match) · 3500 history records