Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaabc…a190 sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,105 (-5%) realized −$2,729 · open −$376
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 78L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$457per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$784
7 days+$784
14 days+$784
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$4,292
other 23% +$372
crypto 14% +$1,678
politics 13% +$1,159
world 7% −$1,702
culture 6% −$622
economics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 67% +12.8%
≤30d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 67% +12.8%
≤90d 14 -25.9% -33.0% 43% 43% -38.8%
all 126 -28.2% -35.0% 38% 37% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 37% -14.4%
10% -41.2% 35% -22.6%
15% -46.9% 32% -30.1%
20% -52.1% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$400 vs −$286 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$2,204
Realized−$2,729
Unrealized−$376
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)126 / 132
History coverage483d
Avg bet$457
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 46¢ $800 $555 −$245 (-31%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 67¢ 66¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 18¢ $200 $80 −$120 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $385 −$380 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $385 +$311 +81%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $385 +$318 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $685 +$210 +31%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? Jun 23 $1,164 +$505 +43%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) May 24 $202 +$131 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 23 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $37 +$51 +135%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers May 03 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5) Mar 27 $500 −$498 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Mar 08 $550 −$548 -100%
Rashid Shaheed: Receiving Yards O/U 22.5 Feb 22 $500 +$424 +85%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 22 $631 +$805 +128%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Feb 22 $1,320 +$1,218 +92%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 22 $110 −$110 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 06 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 06 $140 −$140 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Jan 31 $600 +$453 +75%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jan 31 $1,500 +$505 +34%
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5 Jan 26 $500 +$430 +86%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 26 $1,000 +$518 +52%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jan 26 $350 −$350 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5 Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 05 $160 +$250 +156%
Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5 Jan 05 $220 +$195 +89%
Lions vs. Bears: O/U 51.5 Jan 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Bills (-11.5) Jan 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Colts vs. Texans: O/U 38.5 Jan 04 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $2,500 +$407 +16%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $2,500 +$1,191 +48%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Dec 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-5.5) Dec 20 $200 +$200 +100%
Spread: Eagles (-6.5) Dec 07 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: 49ers (-4.5) Nov 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Rams (-6.5) Nov 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 41.5 Nov 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Patriots vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5 Nov 23 $200 −$200 -100%
BYU vs. Cincinnati Nov 23 $250 +$174 +70%
Spread: California (-4.5) Nov 23 $250 +$240 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $184 52m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $505 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $203 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $808 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $405 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $183 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $385 20h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $385 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $685 43h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $385 45h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,164 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 32d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 60¢ $202 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,500 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $20 34d
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? BUY Yes $21 34d
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Texas Rangers 44¢ $305 52d
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5) BUY Arkansas Razorbacks 52¢ $500 90d
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) BUY Michigan State Spartans 52¢ $550 109d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $110 123d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 124d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 125d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 125d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 49¢ $196 136d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,204.43 · official $2,204.43 (match) · 245 history records