Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaabc…0a83 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$208 (-12%) realized −$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$60
14 days−$217
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$103
crypto 6% −$100
world 3% −$50
sports 2% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 24 -16.3% -24.3% 46% 46% -22.1%
≤90d 24 -16.3% -24.3% 46% 46% -22.1%
all 24 -16.3% -24.3% 46% 46% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 46% -22.1%
10% -31.5% 42% -29.5%
15% -38.1% 42% -36.4%
20% -44.2% 29% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$58 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage12d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$42 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 +$33 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $22 −$21 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $80 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.04 · official $200.05 (match) · 39 history records