Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaabf…afd2 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$332 (-15%) realized −$332 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$246
world 19% −$26
sports 9% −$63
culture 8% −$15
finance 8% −$25
politics 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.5% -24.4% 0% 0% -27.3%
≤30d 17 -13.2% -21.5% 0% 0% -22.3%
≤90d 34 -15.3% -23.4% 3% 0% -25.0%
all 34 -15.3% -23.4% 3% 0% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 0% -25.0%
10% -30.7% 0% -32.2%
15% -37.4% 0% -38.7%
20% -43.5% 0% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage38d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $294 −$91 -31%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$6 -11%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$18 -8%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $197 −$11 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $184 −$15 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 24 $85 −$17 -20%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 23 $59 −$3 -6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 22 $104 −$10 -9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 21 $63 −$36 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $56 −$3 -6%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 21 $39 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $72 −$4 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $75 −$3 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 20 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco May 20 $16 −$2 -15%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 20 $41 −$2 -4%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Berfu Cengiz May 19 $24 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 19 $66 −$4 -7%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $12 −$1 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 18 $96 −$8 -8%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -13%
Zagreb: Stefan Dostanic vs Chris Rodesch May 13 $110 −$52 -47%
Bengaluru 2: Yuta Kawahashi vs Kriish Tyagi May 13 $9 −$4 -48%
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close May 13 $16 $0 -3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 13 $39 −$8 -20%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $72 −$12 -16%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $76 −$50 -66%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 11 $42 −$5 -12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 11 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 15, 2026? May 11 $7 −$1 -9%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 11 $9 −$3 -36%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $198 1h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $5 2h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $294 3h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 35¢ $50 2d
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 38¢ $56 2d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 6d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $187 6d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $235 6d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 48¢ $186 20d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 50¢ $197 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $70 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $83 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL Yes 20¢ $59 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 24¢ $85 24d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 31¢ $56 25d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 32¢ $59 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $99 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $101 25d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l SELL Yes 27¢ $22 27d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l SELL Yes 24¢ $5 27d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l BUY Yes 32¢ $34 27d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? SELL No 11¢ $19 28d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? SELL No 21¢ $9 28d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? BUY No 28¢ $63 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 26¢ $53 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $56 28d
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k SELL No 54¢ $35 28d
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k BUY No 58¢ $39 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $68 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records