Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AA 0xaabf…832a crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$974 (+21%) realized +$974 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%30W / 30L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$617
7 days+$858
14 days+$850
30 days+$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$602
crypto 24% −$32
other 14% +$205
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +86.8% +69.0% 58% 58% +13.2%
≤30d 44 +32.6% +20.0% 48% 45% +5.0%
≤90d 60 +26.4% +14.4% 50% 43% +6.5%
all 60 +26.4% +14.4% 50% 43% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 43% +6.5%
10% +3.4% 40% -3.7%
15% -6.6% 33% -13.0%
20% -15.7% 32% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$44 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$974
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage35d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $257 −$70 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$38 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 −$124 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$28 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $124 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$11 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $649 +$618 +95%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $18 +$21 +116%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 −$246 -81%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $309 +$405 +131%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $29 +$30 +100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$13 +136%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$29 +58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $240 −$236 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $129 +$112 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 +$95 +125%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $198 +$100 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $465 +$289 +62%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$3 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $139 −$137 -99%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 21 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 21 $41 −$21 -50%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 18 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records