Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaac2…b23c crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$1
sports 26% +$1
other 12% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.5% -23.5% 57% 21% -12.7%
≤30d 28 -15.5% -23.5% 57% 21% -12.7%
≤90d 28 -15.5% -23.5% 57% 21% -12.7%
all 28 -15.5% -23.5% 57% 21% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 21% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 7% -21.0%
15% -37.5% 0% -28.7%
20% -43.6% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$2 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +34%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -66%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $72 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 62¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $5 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $5 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $11 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $10 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 55¢ $8 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $7 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records