Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaac7…7673 crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+3%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%117W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$4
other 30% +$70
politics 9% −$1
economics 7% −$1
culture 5% +$1
weather 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 108 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.2%
all 122 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 1% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -7.2%
10% -17.9% 1% -16.1%
15% -25.8% 1% -24.2%
20% -33.1% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×22.81 per $1 lost it wins $22.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses117 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage554d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primar Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jerse Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 26? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chad Chig Martin win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Sheila Korth-Focken win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican pri May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 12? May 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 30h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jerse BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $20 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 23d
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 24d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 26d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $16 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $28 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 29d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 100¢ $14 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $23 31d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.53 · official $69.53 (match) · 252 history records