Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaac8…6495 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,612 (+46%) realized +$1,595 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%37W / 40L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$20
14 days+$1,677
30 days+$1,667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$1,655
other 22% +$42
world 7% −$17
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 48% -8.1%
≤30d 77 +9.9% -0.5% 48% 45% +50.1%
≤90d 77 +9.9% -0.5% 48% 45% +50.1%
all 77 +9.9% -0.5% 48% 45% +50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 45% +50.1%
10% -10.0% 44% +35.7%
15% -18.7% 36% +22.6%
20% -26.7% 29% +10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$13 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$649
Realized+$1,595
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses37 / 40
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions22
Markets (closed)77 / 109
History coverage33d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $82 $70 −$12 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $56 $64 +$8 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $51 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+19%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $21 $29 +$8 (+38%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+158%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 37¢ 38¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-29%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$23 +114%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 +$14 +35%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $10 +$13 +125%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$15 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $151 +$44 +29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $151 +$46 +30%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$20 -50%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 +$3 +140%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 +$2 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $151 −$38 -25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +151%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$21 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $120 +$9 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +204%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +219%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$29 -71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 81¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 92¢ $78 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $20 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $36 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $38 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 82¢ $23 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $56 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $195 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $20 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 51¢ $19 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $197 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $30 28h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 28h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.26 · official $649.31 (match) · 185 history records