Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaac8…33c9 sports 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,854 (-22%) realized −$8,164 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%73W / 102L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day128.1pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,043
7 days−$3,686
14 days−$3,686
30 days−$8,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$5,758
other 37% −$2,050
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -81.1% -82.9% 8% 8% -38.9%
≤30d 175 +35.8% +22.8% 42% 39% -38.9%
≤90d 175 +35.8% +22.8% 42% 39% -38.9%
all 175 +35.8% +22.8% 42% 39% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.8% 39% -38.9%
10% ← realistic here +11.1% 35% -44.7%
15% +0.4% 31% -50.1%
20% -9.5% 25% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +135% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
24.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$123 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$8,164
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses73 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions3
Markets (closed)175 / 108
History coverage26d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day128.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 22¢ $305 $312 +$7 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Cavaliers 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cervia: Juan Martin vs Michele Ribecai Michele Ribecai 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka Taiyo Yamanaka 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $1,052 $0 −$1,052 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Over 16¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Avalanche 62¢ $606 $0 −$606 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 Over $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? No 76¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 27? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26? No 92¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 15 $1 −$1 -107%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -91%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -114%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$17 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -92%
Lillestrøm SK vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -101%
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 15 $1 −$2 -274%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -105%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Platense: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -115%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -69%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -122%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -106%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Gabi Boitan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -117%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: CD Coquimbo Unido (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 27? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 23? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $0 +$2 +892%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to S Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 21¢ $9 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 21¢ $7 12m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $4 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 20¢ $20 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 14m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $12 15m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 15m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $21 22m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $6 23m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 23m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 23m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 28m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 29m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 34m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $3 34m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $7 39m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $5 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $1 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $5 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $5 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $5 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $5 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler $3 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.73 · official $317.73 (match) · 3500 history records