Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaacb…ae76 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-9%) realized −$95 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$27
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$49
sports 19% +$14
world 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.1% -23.2% 44% 44% -15.5%
≤30d 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -20.9%
≤90d 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -20.9%
all 15 -39.6% -45.4% 33% 33% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 33% -20.9%
10% -50.6% 33% -28.4%
15% -55.4% 20% -35.3%
20% -59.8% 7% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 74¢ $65 $102 +$37 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $54 −$25 -47%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $39 +$15 +38%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $130 +$29 +22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -91%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $45 +$14 +32%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$35 +127%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $105 +$43 +41%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $29 14m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $54 59m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 65¢ $54 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $39 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 96¢ $71 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $1 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 51¢ $85 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 34¢ $59 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 36¢ $59 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $62 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $57 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.65 · official $101.65 (match) · 29 history records