Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaacb…1d63 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$26
politics 27% −$76
sports 18% −$11
crypto 12% −$12
culture 6% −$2
economics 4% −$1
finance 2% −$3
world 2% −$4
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -1.1% -10.5% 10% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 108 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.3%
all 125 -0.8% -10.3% 13% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 109
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage102d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $306 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $531 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $372 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $57 $0 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $274 −$4 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $393 $0 +0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $61 −$2 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $603 −$3 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $40 −$1 -3%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $216 −$3 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $219 −$1 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 07 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $270 −$52 -19%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $38 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $47 6h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 11h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 11h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 11h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $50 11h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $51 20h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $59 20h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $60 25h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $66 26h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $66 34h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $56 34h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $57 42h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $53 43h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $52 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $64 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $64 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.64 · official $37.64 (match) · 478 history records