Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaacb…2103 sports 655 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-2%) realized −$67 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%174W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$41
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$68
other 23% −$68
crypto 7% −$42
world 7% −$10
weather 4% −$10
tech 3% +$24
finance 2% −$3
politics 2% +$20
culture 1% −$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 261 -11.6% -20.0% 18% 9% -19.5%
≤90d 653 -6.3% -15.2% 27% 18% -14.0%
all 653 -6.3% -15.2% 27% 18% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 18% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 16% -22.2%
15% -30.7% 14% -29.7%
20% -37.5% 11% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses174 / 479
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)653 / 655
History coverage46d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+51%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 08 $2 $0 -15%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 07 $4 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -30%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -9%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $8 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 06 $2 $0 -5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 06 $2 $0 -15%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $8 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 06 $3 $0 -17%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 06 $3 $0 -5%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 06 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -15%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $4 $0 -3%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -21%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 $0 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 06 $2 $0 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 04 $5 $0 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -11%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3 6d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 6d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down on June 8? SELL Down $0 6d
Solana Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 78¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 26¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 28¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 31¢ $2 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.25 · official $11.26 (match) · 1890 history records