Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaacb…90cb world 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,117 (+38%) realized +$14,397 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 71L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$5,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$15,003
14 days+$12,866
30 days+$11,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$10,494
other 34% −$286
crypto 11% −$492
sports 0% +$221
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-67.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +10.3% -0.2% 45% 45% +154.2%
≤30d 65 -63.5% -66.9% 14% 14% +65.5%
≤90d 81 -64.0% -67.4% 12% 12% +53.3%
all 81 -64.0% -67.4% 12% 12% +53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.4% 12% +53.3%
10% ← realistic here -70.5% 12% +38.7%
15% -73.4% 11% +25.3%
20% -76.0% 9% +13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt +65% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -80% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,707 vs −$97 · ×17.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$5,690
Realized+$14,397
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)81 / 102
History coverage44d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,635 $1,988 +$353 (+22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,668 $1,170 −$498 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $850 $862 +$12 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $330 $374 +$44 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $330 $277 −$54 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $197 $260 +$64 (+32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $164 $238 +$74 (+45%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $219 $149 −$70 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $105 $80 −$25 (-24%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $187 $20 −$167 (-89%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $955 −$129 -14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $346 +$160 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,972 +$4,880 +248%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,180 +$9,598 +230%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $75 −$70 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,256 +$516 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $113 −$108 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $204 −$61 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $894 +$240 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $353 −$353 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $230 −$70 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,253 −$1,405 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 +33%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $527 +$800 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,124 +$175 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $101 −$101 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $294 −$115 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 30 $1,592 −$236 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $28 −$27 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $174 −$174 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $220 −$211 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $246 −$34 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $129 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $55 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $61 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $247 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $3 39h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $165 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $82 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $507 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $8 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $346 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $65 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $26 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $25 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 3d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $72 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $108 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $140 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $169 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $202 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $225 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $339 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,689.88 · official $5,690.08 (match) · 1884 history records