Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaad0…f61d crypto 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28,038 (+5%) realized +$28,038 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%184W / 28L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,903per market
Trades / day150.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.8% -13.9% 87% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 212 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 212 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 0% -11.8%
all 212 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 0% -11.8%
10% -19.3% 0% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$4,686) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$801 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses184 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 209
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$2,903
Trades / day150.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4,783 −$4,783 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $13,674 −$13,674 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,571 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $4,736 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $683 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1,782 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6,234 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2,338 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6,144 +$62 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $6,089 +$55 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5,963 +$120 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1,647 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5,898 +$55 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4,538 +$46 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3,189 −$65 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $463 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1,324 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2,367 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5,765 +$108 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5,703 +$58 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5,595 +$112 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3,734 +$37 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $379 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5,496 +$56 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $4,951 +$49 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $518 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,412 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5,379 +$54 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4,587 +$47 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1,437 +$28 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1,984 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4,572 +$43 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6,176 +$62 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $6,117 +$60 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $6,054 +$61 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $594 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $5,998 +$58 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5,946 +$47 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3,481 +$32 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5,833 +$86 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5,776 +$57 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $559 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $3,798 +$36 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $1,396 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $5,662 +$57 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $136 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $955 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $999 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1,586 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1,034 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $998 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $928 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $998 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $998 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $226 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $332 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $377 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $490 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $649 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records