Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaad1…431f other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,361 (+1%) realized +$1,361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 135L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$957per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$222
politics 35% −$81
sports 7% +$1,230
economics 3% +$1
culture 2% −$4
world 1% −$33
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +6.1% -4.0% 11% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 81 +0.9% -8.7% 9% 4% -8.9%
all 174 +5.4% -4.6% 22% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 12% -8.8%
10% -13.7% 12% -17.5%
15% -22.1% 11% -25.5%
20% -29.7% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,576) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$5 · ×10.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$749
Realized+$1,361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage165d
Avg bet$957
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $428 $428 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $321 $321 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 23 $324 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $312 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,947 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,871 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,713 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,967 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $64 +$62 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $58 +$77 +134%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $808 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $197 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,979 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,014 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $323 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,812 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $325 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $523 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $466 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $493 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 21 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,100 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,056 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,881 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,816 −$3 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $861 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $428 1h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $324 20h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $324 22h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $312 24h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $312 26h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $501 42h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $502 44h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $308 46h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $309 47h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $419 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $420 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $424 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $425 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $585 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $586 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $673 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $674 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $775 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $777 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $817 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $818 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $577 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $578 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $762 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $614 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $615 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $321 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $748.52 · official $748.52 (match) · 645 history records