Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaad2…3bb3 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-21%) realized −$227 · open +$100
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$16
other 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -49.7% -54.5% 19% 19% -38.5%
≤30d 21 -49.7% -54.5% 19% 19% -38.5%
≤90d 21 -49.7% -54.5% 19% 19% -38.5%
all 21 -49.7% -54.5% 19% 19% -38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.5% 19% -38.5%
10% -58.8% 19% -44.3%
15% -62.8% 19% -49.7%
20% -66.5% 19% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 23¢ 62¢ $50 $135 +$85 (+169%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 34¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $101 −$50 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $110 +$69 +63%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$14 -93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 60¢ $95 4m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 60¢ $34 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $51 27m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $9 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $41 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $6 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $16 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye $0 5d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $5 5d
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 6d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $48 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 17¢ $15 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $16 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $180 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.01 · official $180.63 · 37 history records