Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaad2…d942 crypto 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$168 (-8%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%68W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$75
14 days−$233
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$59
sports 19% −$106
other 5% −$73
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +6.4% -3.8% 60% 47% -13.4%
≤30d 137 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 137 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 39% -19.5%
all 137 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 39% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 39% -19.5%
10% -25.4% 23% -27.2%
15% -32.6% 18% -34.2%
20% -39.2% 14% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses68 / 69
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage20d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$23 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$5 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$24 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$5 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$27 +158%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$7 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$14 +252%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$7 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$15 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$13 -72%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -64%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$15 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -72%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $14 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $16 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $13 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records