Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaade…8dd1 crypto 919 markets active 1d ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$334 (-4%) realized −$349 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%622W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day104.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$134
14 days−$673
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$447
tech 3% +$8
other 1% +$16
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -21.7% -29.2% 57% 46% -18.4%
≤30d 909 -12.2% -20.6% 68% 53% -14.0%
≤90d 909 -12.2% -20.6% 68% 53% -14.0%
all 909 -12.2% -20.6% 68% 53% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 53% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 12% -22.2%
15% -35.1% 6% -29.7%
20% -41.5% 5% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses622 / 287
Open positions11
Markets (closed)909 / 919
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day104.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $192 $200 +$8 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 92¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$9 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY No 100¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.30 · official $292.30 (match) · 3500 history records