Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaade…1964 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+10%) realized +$89 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$75
crypto 4% +$23
sports 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 50% +8.9%
≤30d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 50% +8.9%
≤90d 10 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 50% +8.9%
all 10 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 50% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 50% +8.9%
10% -15.1% 50% -1.5%
15% -23.3% 50% -11.0%
20% -30.9% 50% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $372 $379 +$7 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $251 +$128 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 +$7 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$28 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $73 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $61 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $49 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $32 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $82 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $75 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.08 · official $379.14 (match) · 21 history records