Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaae4…118b other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$8
politics 20% −$1
tech 7% −$1
sports 7% −$29
economics 5% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -6.2% -15.2% 9% 4% -10.1%
all 101 -6.1% -15.1% 9% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -10.1%
10% -23.2% 4% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 4% -26.6%
20% -37.4% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage92d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $117 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $11 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $11 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 33d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $51 34d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.43 · official $45.43 (match) · 260 history records