Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaae4…2d5a crypto 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%68W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$51
crypto 28% −$47
world 3% +$2
sports 2% −$13
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 46% 46% -4.5%
≤30d 13 +9.2% -1.2% 46% 46% -4.5%
≤90d 38 -7.1% -16.0% 42% 42% -14.6%
all 163 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 39% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 39% -10.0%
10% -24.4% 39% -18.6%
15% -31.7% 34% -26.5%
20% -38.4% 28% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses68 / 95
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage108d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 +$17 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 +$9 +276%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 $0 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 +$30 +257%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 +$8 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $3 +$4 +124%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 05 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 +$11 +114%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 $0 -3%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-03-28? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 32h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 40h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 73d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 75d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 75d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 76d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 76d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 76d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 76d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.31 · official $97.31 (match) · 373 history records