Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaae4…5ae6 politics 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,017 (-1%) realized −$1,017 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%28W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$14
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$49
other 37% −$95
sports 11% −$960
world 4% +$74
culture 4% −$5
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -17.5% -25.4% 6% 0% -11.1%
all 119 -4.4% -13.5% 24% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 7% -10.4%
10% -21.8% 7% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 7% -26.8%
20% -36.3% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,135) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,017
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses28 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage142d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3,923 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,721 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $749 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,129 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,943 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,532 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,386 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 03 $422 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 03 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,168 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,993 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $979 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,248 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $357 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $691 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $495 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,386 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,966 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $202 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $737 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $738 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $775 6h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $776 7h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $430 24h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $430 26h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 28h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $877 30h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $251 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $861 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,640 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,642 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,618 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,620 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,604 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,468 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,470 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records