Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaae4…cee7 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$32 (+8%) realized +$54 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +16.1% +5.0% 100% 67% +5.0%
all 3 +16.1% +5.0% 100% 67% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 67% +5.0%
10% -5.0% 33% -5.0%
15% -14.2% 0% -14.2%
20% -22.6% 0% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage61d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 76¢ 72¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 64¢ 50¢ $80 $63 −$17 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 30 $116 +$11 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $50 +$7 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $100 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $80 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 94¢ $127 51d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $57 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 86¢ $116 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 90¢ $125 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 72¢ $100 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.27 · official $148.52 · 9 history records