Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaeb…9ec2 crypto 1069 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,847 (-15%) realized −$6,891 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%352W / 821L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day98.5pace
Fees−$398est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$488
crypto 18% −$167
other 3% −$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -94.7% -95.2% 4% 2% -16.7%
≤30d 1058 -15.7% -23.7% 29% 28% -11.4%
≤90d 1173 -11.4% -19.9% 30% 29% -11.1%
all 1173 -11.4% -19.9% 30% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 29% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 28% -19.6%
15% -34.5% 27% -27.4%
20% -41.0% 26% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$18 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$902
Realized−$6,891
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses352 / 821
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$398
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1173 / 1069
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day98.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 64¢ 88¢ $384 $525 +$141 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Phantom 56¢ 100¢ $143 $256 +$113 (+78%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Paper Rex 55¢ 64¢ $103 $121 +$18 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 45¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $6 30m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $15 30m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $72 30m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $10 30m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 19¢ $84 35m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $211 58m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2 59m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $0 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 45¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 45¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 45¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 56¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 56¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 56¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 56¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $302 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $65 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 30¢ $8 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 30¢ $43 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 30¢ $60 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 30¢ $9 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $29 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $19 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $48 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $19 6d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.25 · official $902.25 (match) · 3500 history records