Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:58:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaaec…aaa0 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$630 (+15%) realized +$630 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 30L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$27
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$594
other 5% +$67
weather 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 33% +12.5%
≤30d 46 +17.0% +5.8% 46% 39% +5.0%
≤90d 74 +20.6% +9.2% 59% 51% +5.3%
all 74 +20.6% +9.2% 59% 51% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 51% +5.3%
10% -1.3% 38% -4.8%
15% -10.8% 32% -14.0%
20% -19.6% 27% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$35 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 30
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage49d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$20 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$30 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$151 +296%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $82 +$54 +66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 +$8 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$22 +711%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $107 +$440 +411%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$13 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Djed Spence be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $41 +$141 +344%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 +$48 +158%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $2 $0 -11%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $254 −$254 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $201 +$27 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 30 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $90 +$19 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $231 +$82 +35%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $200 −$84 -42%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $100 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 7d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $20 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $5 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $56 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $53 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 53¢ $21 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $31 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 59¢ $26 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $30 15d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $37 16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $2 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $2 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $4 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $2 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $1 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $1 17d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 47¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.81 · official $46.81 (match) · 230 history records