Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf2…29d6 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-2%) realized −$64 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$147
other 3% −$58
politics 2% +$48
crypto 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +76.2% +59.5% 100% 100% +59.5%
≤30d 1 +76.2% +59.5% 100% 100% +59.5%
≤90d 2 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 50% +6.6%
all 77 -27.1% -34.0% 35% 35% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 35% -11.7%
10% -40.3% 35% -20.1%
15% -46.1% 32% -27.8%
20% -51.4% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$40 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage632d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 53¢ 28¢ $74 $40 −$34 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Feb 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 13 $50 +$75 +150%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner Jan 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: West Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Jan 20 $48 +$50 +104%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jan 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jan 17 $40 +$11 +26%
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Francisco Comesana Jan 14 $67 +$21 +32%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 13 $31 +$36 +113%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) Dec 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Dec 21 $49 +$30 +61%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Dec 21 $25 +$24 +98%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Dec 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale? Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 Winner Nov 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Nov 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Nov 23 $15 +$32 +219%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Nov 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) Nov 22 $15 +$64 +429%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) Nov 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid (BO3) Nov 21 $51 +$118 +233%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Nov 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Nov 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) Nov 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Nov 21 $95 +$78 +82%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 20 $90 +$60 +66%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Nov 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Nov 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) Nov 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Nov 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Nov 18 $100 +$60 +60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Nov 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Nov 17 $150 +$103 +68%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $50 83d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $16 126d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $100 126d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $5 126d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 14¢ $4 126d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $125 126d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $50 126d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $51 145d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 150d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: West BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $20 150d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe SELL MOUZ 100¢ $98 150d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 35¢ $28 150d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe BUY MOUZ 49¢ $48 150d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $51 153d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $40 153d
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Francisco Comesana BUY Shelton 76¢ $67 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 159d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) BUY Team Spirit 34¢ $43 180d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 15¢ $5 180d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $79 180d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 62¢ $49 180d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 99¢ $49 180d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 50¢ $25 180d
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 38¢ $50 196d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) BUY PARIVISION 44¢ $30 197d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner BUY NIP 9¢ $10 199d
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale? BUY No 4¢ $10 200d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Spirit 41¢ $52 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.78 · official $39.80 (match) · 122 history records