Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaaf5…e71c sports 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$189 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%139W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$174
14 days+$113
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$385
other 22% +$342
world 2% −$127
crypto 1% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +13.4% +2.6% 54% 54% -15.4%
≤30d 135 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 55% -9.5%
≤90d 258 +12.3% +1.6% 54% 53% -10.6%
all 258 +12.3% +1.6% 54% 53% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 53% -10.6%
10% -8.1% 53% -19.2%
15% -17.0% 53% -27.0%
20% -25.1% 48% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$42 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses139 / 119
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage62d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$39 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$44 +122%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +106%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $81 +$69 +85%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 +$146 +474%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $81 −$36 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$84 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$39 +129%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $81 +$55 +67%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $35 +$6 +18%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$25 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $30 +$28 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 +$29 +92%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$35 +115%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$28 -55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$18 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $30 +$30 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 56¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 2h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $36 7h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $71 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $41 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $101 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $31 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $51 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 46¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $45 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $81 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $51 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $50 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $50 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 53¢ $51 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 46¢ $51 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $81 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.55 · official $92.55 (match) · 561 history records