Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf5…95ad crypto 648 markets active 23h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,977 (+4%) realized +$3,977 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%347W / 298L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$993
7 days−$1,179
14 days−$1,146
30 days−$1,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$784
economics 21% +$592
politics 20% +$2,232
other 8% −$854
crypto 6% +$295
world 6% +$500
finance 4% −$989
tech 1% +$123
culture 0% +$560
weather 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.7% -62.6% 33% 0% -49.1%
≤30d 13 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 15% -28.1%
≤90d 230 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 38% -18.1%
all 645 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 38% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 38% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 30% -15.6%
15% -26.6% 26% -23.7%
20% -33.8% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,977
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses347 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)645 / 648
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$162
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $504 +$5 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 −$998 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $942 +$58 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $184 −$182 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$15 -59%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,677 −$110 -7%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,003 +$143 +14%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $412 −$10 -2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $43 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 21 $9 −$3 -34%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $84 +$1 +2%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 20 $204 −$118 -58%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $30 +$26 +85%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 16 $60 +$20 +34%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $128 +$11 +9%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $422 −$1 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 15 $74 +$77 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $81 +$67 +83%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $21 −$4 -19%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 14 $18 +$19 +102%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 14 $183 +$80 +44%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $180 +$25 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $24 −$24 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 12 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 10 $372 +$20 +6%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 10 $1,010 −$160 -16%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 10 $99 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $98 +$86 +88%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $54 −$49 -90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $59 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 10 $55 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 10 $15 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 10 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 10 $46 +$74 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $46 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 09 $14 +$6 +45%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 09 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 09 $61 +$55 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $129 −$128 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 09 $84 +$79 +94%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $83 +$10 +12%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 08 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April? May 07 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $14 +$11 +82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 27 $449 −$196 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 27 $7 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 12¢ $102 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 20¢ $410 22h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $373 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $93 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 42h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 42h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 42h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,000 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $184 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $37 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 10¢ $10 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $12 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $942 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $25 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $499.48 · 3500 history records