Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf6…569a other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-9%) realized −$447 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$544
14 days−$261
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$20
sports 13% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.8% -11.1% 41% 37% -23.9%
≤30d 28 +2.7% -7.0% 43% 39% -16.0%
≤90d 28 +2.7% -7.0% 43% 39% -16.0%
all 28 +2.7% -7.0% 43% 39% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 39% -16.0%
10% -15.9% 36% -24.0%
15% -24.1% 21% -31.4%
20% -31.5% 21% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$85 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage9d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $463 +$120 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $242 +$31 +13%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$29 -94%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$26 +537%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $157 −$100 -64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$5 -20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$29 +35%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$18 +28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $291 −$253 -87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $171 −$167 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $187 −$16 -9%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $118 −$87 -74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 −$186 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 −$29 -53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $106 +$146 +137%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $103 +$206 +200%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $153 +$38 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $147 +$139 +95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $169 −$22 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $228 +$283 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $393 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $190 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $190 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $273 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $273 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $242 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 26h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $2 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 39h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 47h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $5 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $52 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $110 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $82 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $81 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $64 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $67 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $203 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $171 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $171 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $187 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $187 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $125 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.19 · official $87.19 (match) · 83 history records