Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…0bc5 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$6
politics 25% $0
other 13% +$1
crypto 12% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 8 +61.4% +46.1% 62% 25% -6.7%
all 35 +14.4% +3.5% 46% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 6% -8.8%
10% -6.4% 6% -17.5%
15% -15.5% 3% -25.5%
20% -23.7% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.08 per $1 lost it wins $7.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage296d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $83 +$6 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $41 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $37 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $37 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 31d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $17 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $22 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $34 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $5 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $11 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $6 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $26 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $44 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 92¢ $43 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.83 · official $42.27 (match) · 104 history records