Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…2e27 other 497 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (228 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$7,227 (+441%) realized +$7,270 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%137W / 127L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day228.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$37
tech 19% +$6
politics 17% −$9
world 10% +$18
sports 8% +$57
finance 2% +$8
culture 1% −$2
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% +$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (228 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +22.6% +10.9% 51% 40% -4.1%
≤30d 264 +68.8% +52.7% 52% 44% +4.2%
≤90d 264 +68.8% +52.7% 52% 44% +4.2%
all 264 +68.8% +52.7% 52% 44% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover228.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.7% 44% +4.2%
10% ← realistic here +38.1% 33% -5.8%
15% +24.8% 27% -14.9%
20% +12.5% 22% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized+$7,270
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses137 / 127
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions500
Markets (closed)264 / 497
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day228.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruba Ghazal be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $1 $21 +$20 (+2325%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+4211%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 35¢ $1 $15 +$15 (+2610%)
Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+868%)
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20? Yes 4¢ 19¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+397%)
Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $3 $9 +$7 (+264%)
Will Donald Trump announce Brandon Williams as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1 $8 +$8 (+1125%)
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+239%)
Will Éric Duhaime be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+375%)
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+225%)
Will Michael Morales be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+221%)
Will Petr Yan fight Dominick Cruz next? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+247%)
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will Neuralink have the second highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+181%)
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+67%)
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+175%)
Will Mateusz Gamrot fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 10¢ 27¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+164%)
Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Will SpaceX have the second highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? Yes 18¢ 44¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+147%)
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+557%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +44%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 15 $12 +$12 +97%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -48%
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +61%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? Jun 15 $2 +$11 +444%
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -73%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 -7%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +148%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +13%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +74%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -18%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 14 $0 +$2 +487%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 14 $0 +$2 +3701%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -16%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +113%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 14 $28 +$7 +24%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +64%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +29%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -41%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 14 $25 −$8 -31%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -35%
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +74%
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +433%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2m
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte SELL No 8¢ $8 23m
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23m
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 39m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 43m
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 48m
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 56m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on I BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on I BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Will Justin Gaethje fight Charles Oliveira next? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.67 · official $795.15 · 3500 history records