Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaafb…e81e weather 1145 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,146 (+4%) realized +$1,171 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%1060W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$882
7 days−$779
14 days−$750
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$581
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -17.0% -24.9% 78% 6% -19.7%
≤30d 887 -3.1% -12.3% 90% 9% -10.9%
≤90d 1171 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 13% -10.6%
all 1171 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 13% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -19.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized+$1,171
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1060 / 111
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1171 / 1145
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 23? No 94¢ 99¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 23? No 81¢ 100¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+23%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 23? No 95¢ 98¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? No 95¢ 100¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? No 91¢ 95¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? No 93¢ 95¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 23? No 91¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? No 87¢ 85¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 23? No 95¢ 77¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 24? No 93¢ 98¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 23? No 90¢ 92¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 23? No 90¢ 91¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? No 93¢ 86¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 23? No 89¢ 62¢ $35 $25 −$11 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 23? No 94¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 22? No 95¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 23? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 23? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 23? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 24? No 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April Jun 23 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21? Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap Jun 23 $4 −$4 -121%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16 Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 28? Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on Apr Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 1? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 4? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 2? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 27? Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on April 23? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? Jun 23 $5 −$11 -227%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 29 Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 4? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ap Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 3? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11 Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on Apri Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 1? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 29? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 27 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 12? Jun 23 $2 −$3 -165%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 27? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Marc Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on April 30 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 5? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 20? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 4? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 6? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on April 5? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 5? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 62°F or higher on April 10? Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 3? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 30 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $3 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $9 9m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 21m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $40 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $21 27m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 29m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $36 45m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $100 58m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 100¢ $145 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 94¢ $29 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 94¢ $23 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $14 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 91¢ $91 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $12 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $15 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $80 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $18 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $26 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $6 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.36 · official $593.35 (match) · 3500 history records