Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaafc…ec67 weather 583 markets active 10h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,791 (+21%) realized +$4,791 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%361W / 220L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$360
14 days+$429
30 days+$1,290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$3,928
other 3% +$447
world 1% −$40
politics 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$29
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +27.5% +15.4% 56% 49% +14.7%
≤30d 182 +29.8% +17.4% 56% 41% +10.4%
≤90d 533 +16.6% +5.5% 65% 40% +8.0%
all 581 +15.5% +4.5% 62% 38% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 38% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 24% -2.8%
15% -14.6% 17% -12.2%
20% -23.0% 13% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.8 per $1 lost it wins $4.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,791
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses361 / 220
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)581 / 583
History coverage117d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 581 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$39 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$18 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$9 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$18 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$17 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $33 −$7 -23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$23 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$12 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$13 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$48 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$8 +46%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $136 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$121 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $11 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$16 +325%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $32 −$27 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$17 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +569%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$13 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $59 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$30 +368%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 16¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 16¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 25¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $63 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 86¢ $27 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 66¢ $21 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 58¢ $44 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 57¢ $32 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $11 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 37¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3267 history records