Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaafe…b7e6 crypto 104 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%81W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -7.6% -16.4% 78% 46% -12.0%
≤30d 104 -4.8% -13.9% 78% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 104 -4.8% -13.9% 78% 47% -11.1%
all 104 -4.8% -13.9% 78% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 20% -19.6%
15% -29.6% 8% -27.4%
20% -36.5% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses81 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $89 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $76 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $74 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $68 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $82 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $86 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$8 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $83 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records