Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab00…f0c8 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$65 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$734per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$433
other 21% −$605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.1% -7.6% 85% 30% -10.2%
≤30d 33 +2.1% -7.6% 85% 30% -10.2%
≤90d 33 +2.1% -7.6% 85% 30% -10.2%
all 33 +2.1% -7.6% 85% 30% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 30% -10.2%
10% -16.5% 12% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 3% -26.6%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$901) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$344 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$734
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $898 $893 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $920 +$29 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $154 −$28 -18%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $152 +$49 +32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $899 +$34 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $430 +$69 +16%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $553 +$130 +23%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $123 +$18 +15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $881 +$54 +6%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $119 +$4 +4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $201 +$17 +9%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $997 +$56 +6%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $356 +$65 +18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2,370 +$69 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $3,240 −$655 -20%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $999 +$5 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1,212 +$74 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $964 +$256 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $520 −$256 -49%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $501 +$19 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $500 −$499 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $500 +$25 +5%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $500 +$16 +3%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $500 +$25 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $525 +$15 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $500 +$25 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $650 +$37 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $492 +$178 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $501 +$79 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $888 −$283 -32%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $901 +$68 +8%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $498 +$74 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $500 +$61 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $900 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $16 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $100 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $31 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $31 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $94 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $156 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $491 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $126 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $113 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $40 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $201 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 75¢ $152 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $934 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $115 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $16 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $29 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $506 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $190 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $42 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $499 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $137 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $61 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $43 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $30 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $100 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $59 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 97¢ $683 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $141 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 78¢ $553 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.97 · official $892.97 (match) · 157 history records