Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab01…231c crypto 1327 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$287 (+0%) realized +$288 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%1286W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days−$90
14 days−$294
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$142
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 934 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 3% -9.6%
≤30d 1208 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 1324 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 3% -9.4%
all 1324 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$59 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1286 / 38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1324 / 1327
History coverage34d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$5 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $107 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $107 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $111 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $134 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $134 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$5 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $107 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $107 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $81 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $39 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $107 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $107 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $134 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $134 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $87 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.54 · official $218.52 · 2723 history records