Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xab02…94ee other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$249 (+13%) realized +$358 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$213
sports 44% +$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.9% +3.9% 29% 29% +6.3%
≤30d 7 +14.9% +3.9% 29% 29% +6.3%
≤90d 7 +14.9% +3.9% 29% 29% +6.3%
all 7 +14.9% +3.9% 29% 29% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 29% +6.3%
10% -6.0% 29% -3.8%
15% -15.1% 14% -13.1%
20% -23.4% 14% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$82 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $145 $142 −$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $190 $84 −$106 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$8 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$9 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$629 +307%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$81 -27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$25 +31%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $175 −$170 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 −$140 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $294 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $194 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $148 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $83 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 68¢ $220 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $144 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $154 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.04 · official $220.45 · 18 history records