Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab04…a00a sports 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-0%) realized −$305 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%225W / 273L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$3,777est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,337
14 days−$9,765
30 days−$9,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$238
other 1% −$1,385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -29.1% -35.9% 31% 31% -35.9%
≤30d 196 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 41% -19.1%
≤90d 498 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 45% -10.2%
all 498 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 45% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 45% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 44% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 44% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 44% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$582) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$452 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses225 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3,777
Open positions2
Markets (closed)498 / 500
History coverage77d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Bebop 50¢ 50¢ $275 $272 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 50¢ 42¢ $275 $234 −$41 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $275 +$275 +100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $280 −$280 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $280 −$5 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 14 $277 −$277 -100%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $275 +$275 +100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $280 +$318 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $275 +$274 +100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $275 +$297 +108%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $271 +$296 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $275 +$275 +100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $280 −$280 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $275 +$274 +100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $277 −$277 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $281 +$636 +226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $275 −$275 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $275 +$275 +100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $275 −$275 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $275 −$275 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $275 +$275 +100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $279 +$282 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $275 +$275 +100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 10 $300 −$275 -92%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $280 −$280 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $279 −$279 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $280 −$280 -100%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 09 $280 −$280 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $276 −$276 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $281 −$281 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $281 −$281 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $275 +$275 +100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $279 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 09 $27 +$27 +100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $279 +$294 +105%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 08 $32 +$48 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $52 57m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $50 57m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $5 57m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $162 57m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $6 57m
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 50¢ $279 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $36 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $22 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $213 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 50¢ $275 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $280 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $279 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 37¢ $275 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $280 3d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $108 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY MASONIC 45¢ $87 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 50¢ $42 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 50¢ $150 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 50¢ $4 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 50¢ $3 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 50¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 50¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.00 · official $519.75 · 2611 history records