Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab0c…7113 weather 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%71W / 19L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$26
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -9.7% -18.3% 79% 7% -8.6%
≤30d 90 -9.7% -18.3% 79% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 90 -9.7% -18.3% 79% 7% -8.6%
all 90 -9.7% -18.3% 79% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 7% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 6% -17.3%
15% -33.2% 4% -25.3%
20% -39.8% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses71 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $12 53m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 53m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 53m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 54m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.20 · official $101.20 (match) · 259 history records