Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xab12…764e sports 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,344 (+11%) realized +$14,283 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%172W / 83L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$1,443est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,848
7 days+$3,241
14 days+$8,536
30 days+$14,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$15,096
other 1% −$1,027
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +11.7% +1.1% 75% 75% +4.2%
≤30d 235 +8.7% -1.7% 68% 66% +1.9%
≤90d 255 +7.9% -2.3% 67% 66% +0.8%
all 255 +7.9% -2.3% 67% 66% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 66% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 64% -8.8%
15% -20.2% 53% -17.6%
20% -28.0% 35% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$522) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$402 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2,285
Realized+$14,283
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses172 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,443
Open positions6
Markets (closed)255 / 261
History coverage33d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 84¢ 94¢ $849 $955 +$106 (+13%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 69¢ 68¢ $504 $500 −$4 (-1%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 60¢ 54¢ $510 $459 −$51 (-10%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 65¢ 64¢ $251 $248 −$4 (-1%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 83¢ 95¢ $82 $94 +$12 (+15%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 83¢ 86¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $757 +$487 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $497 +$203 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $544 +$256 +47%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $518 +$331 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $759 +$236 +31%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $319 +$63 +20%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 19 $264 +$39 +15%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $504 +$106 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $502 +$190 +38%
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 19 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $751 +$223 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $529 +$241 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $627 +$473 +75%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $504 +$116 +23%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $289 +$68 +24%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $145 +$34 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $512 −$512 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $512 −$512 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $515 −$515 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $510 −$510 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $502 +$258 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $502 +$324 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $504 +$446 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $511 +$189 +37%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $504 +$259 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $510 +$340 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $518 +$282 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $502 +$248 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $253 +$157 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $502 +$308 +61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $512 +$328 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $507 +$143 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $507 +$143 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $516 +$684 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $798 +$226 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $524 +$198 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $510 +$240 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $720 +$180 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $529 −$529 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $503 −$503 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $746 −$746 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $605 +$231 +38%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $510 +$240 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 60¢ $516 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 71¢ $497 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $544 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $226 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $75 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $16 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $428 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $183 7h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 83¢ $82 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $70 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $492 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $12 7h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $27 8h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 82¢ $5 8h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 82¢ $62 8h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 84¢ $252 8h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 82¢ $148 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 82¢ $107 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 83¢ $42 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 83¢ $207 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $279 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $35 11h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $42 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $35 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $13 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $88 11h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $67 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,285.01 · official $2,285.01 (match) · 1393 history records