trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 14 | $46,777 | +$3,089 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $44,383 | +$2,013 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $220,201 | −$3,627 | -2% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 13 | $38,940 | +$1,129 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 12 | $1,450 | +$40 | +3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | Jun 11 | $498 | +$2 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $19,960 | +$40 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $3,751 | +$213 | +6% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $18,876 | +$488 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $19,077 | +$271 | +1% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $17,306 | +$156 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $55,752 | +$57,337 | +103% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $67 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $479,441 | +$22,709 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $149,340 | +$346 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $13,426 | +$928 | +7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 19 | $977 | +$33 | +3% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $8,884 | +$9 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $1,083 | +$27,311 | +2522% |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | May 14 | $29,780 | +$60 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +2.5% | -7.2% | 90% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +112.9% | +92.7% | 95% | 11% | -1.0% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +107.3% | +87.6% | 95% | 10% | -1.3% |
| all | 20 | +107.3% | +87.6% | 95% | 10% | -1.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +87.6% | 10% | -1.3% |
| 10% | +69.6% | 10% | -10.7% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +53.2% | 10% | -19.3% |
| 20% | +38.2% | 10% | -27.2% |