Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab1a…4620 sports 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,257 (-9%) realized −$1,233 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%100W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$130
30 days−$961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$739
other 6% −$406
world 3% −$9
politics 1% −$107
crypto 1% −$16
economics 0% −$56
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -77.1%
≤30d 55 -38.8% -44.6% 29% 29% -50.2%
≤90d 112 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 43% -20.8%
all 214 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 39% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 39% -18.0%
10% -30.9% 32% -25.9%
15% -37.5% 27% -33.0%
20% -43.7% 21% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$1,233
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses100 / 114
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions5
Markets (closed)214 / 222
History coverage592d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 27¢ $41 $27 −$14 (-34%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 32¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $19 −$4 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $45 +$47 +106%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $56 +$39 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $29 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $18 +$12 +70%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 +$30 +99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $27 +$18 +66%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $22 +$13 +60%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $20 +$20 +101%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5) Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $49 −$49 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 03 $106 −$57 -54%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 03 $150 −$135 -90%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 03 $152 −$152 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $211 −$211 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $28 +$20 +73%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $24 +$31 +134%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $24 +$26 +109%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $39 +$21 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 71¢ $14 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 22¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $13 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 17¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $18 43h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $2 43h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $3 43h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 43h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $0 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Wil BUY 12¢ $4 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $61 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 26¢ $27 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $74 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $75 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 81¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $18 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $12 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $45 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $18 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 3¢ $10 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $36 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.59 · official $78.59 (match) · 585 history records