Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AB 0xab1a…83e9 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,039 (-4%) realized −$1,039 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate74%176W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$338
7 days−$215
14 days−$644
30 days−$1,657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,657
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 55% -17.8%
≤30d 239 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 57% -15.7%
≤90d 239 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 57% -15.7%
all 239 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 57% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 57% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 31% -23.8%
15% -28.6% 18% -31.2%
20% -35.6% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$95 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,039
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses176 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage21d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$43 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$90 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $206 −$71 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$51 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$78 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$45 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$37 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$62 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $94 +$108 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $93 +$49 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$57 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$37 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $58 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $46 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $115 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $162 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $125 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $155 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records