Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab1c…f2eb sports 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-2%) realized −$382 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%219W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$89
30 days+$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$179
crypto 4% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +33.8% +21.1% 100% 100% +23.3%
≤30d 82 +4.3% -5.6% 61% 51% -2.5%
≤90d 325 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 47% -7.0%
all 409 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 45% -11.5%
10% -20.3% 36% -20.0%
15% -28.0% 25% -27.7%
20% -35.1% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses219 / 190
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions1
Markets (closed)409 / 410
History coverage117d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 91¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $56 +$30 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $44 +$6 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $12 +$7 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $172 +$28 +16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$35 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $83 −$5 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$4 +90%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $62 −$17 -27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $83 +$12 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $63 −$20 -31%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 13 $93 −$12 -13%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$27 -47%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$27 -74%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$45 -89%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 13 $101 −$64 -63%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$9 +222%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $209 −$71 -34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 −$9 -72%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $140 +$10 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $13 +$16 +123%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$16 +65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $84 +$21 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $70 −$37 -52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $52 +$14 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $58 +$18 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$1 +4%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $64 +$23 +37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $34 +$16 +47%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $193 +$8 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $84 −$31 -36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$10 -40%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $24 +$26 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$1 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 −$11 -48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $952 +$314 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$6 +114%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $8 −$6 -73%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $168 +$25 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 92¢ $21 48m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $18 58m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $46 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $68 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 60¢ $14 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 52¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $9 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $4 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $26 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $17 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $44 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 96¢ $19 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 62¢ $1 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 62¢ $11 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $86 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $172 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 49¢ $19 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 49¢ $0 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $31 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $23 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 40¢ $16 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 16¢ $9 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 8¢ $5 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 11¢ $11 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $18 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 34¢ $34 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 80¢ $15 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 80¢ $5 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 80¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 1819 history records