Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xab20…cf93 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$391 (+3%) realized +$768 · open −$377
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate74%77W / 27L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$460
14 days+$534
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$218
crypto 4% −$35
other 2% −$33
finance 2% +$4
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +1.6% -8.1% 74% 68% -4.5%
≤30d 104 +1.6% -8.1% 74% 66% -5.6%
≤90d 104 +1.6% -8.1% 74% 66% -5.6%
all 104 +1.6% -8.1% 74% 66% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 66% -5.6%
10% -16.9% 56% -14.6%
15% -24.9% 39% -22.9%
20% -32.3% 15% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$103 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$768
Unrealized−$377
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses77 / 27
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions6
Markets (closed)104 / 110
History coverage10d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs ex-RUBY 80¢ 100¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 58¢ 69¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Spirit Academy 56¢ 0¢ $290 $0 −$289 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 76¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $101 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$54 +52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $201 +$58 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $202 +$89 +44%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $90 +$61 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$97 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $203 +$4 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $202 +$84 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$25 -49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $201 +$52 +26%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $101 +$28 +28%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $202 +$97 +48%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $201 +$64 +32%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $201 +$32 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $161 +$34 +21%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $404 +$38 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Gatorian (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $182 +$80 +44%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $101 +$61 +61%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $202 +$126 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 55¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 91¢ $100 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 64¢ $101 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 56¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 80¢ $101 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 76¢ $101 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $101 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $101 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 86¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 80¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $202 4d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $101 4d
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Twisted Minds 95¢ $100 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Toronto KOI 75¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 65¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY INOX Division 69¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 82¢ $101 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 65¢ $207 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 60¢ $71 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $101 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.93 · official $483.50 · 213 history records