Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab21…c521 culture 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable culture specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,378 (+3%) realized +$17,514 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%314W / 20L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,648per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 98% −$3,670
economics 1% +$5
sports 1% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 92% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 59 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 210 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 1% -12.2%
all 334 +3.1% -6.7% 94% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 4% -10.1%
10% -15.6% 2% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -23.8% 1% -26.5%
20% -31.3% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,453) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$776 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$10,566
Realized+$17,514
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses314 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)334 / 351
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$1,648
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,832 $3,909 +$77 (+2%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,351 $1,384 +$33 (+2%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 97¢ 90¢ $1,314 $1,228 −$86 (-7%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $996 $1,001 +$5 (+1%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $833 $835 +$2 (+0%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 97¢ 90¢ $645 $600 −$45 (-7%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? No 99¢ 98¢ $358 $353 −$5 (-1%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? No 100¢ 100¢ $281 $281 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 24m? No 97¢ 100¢ $244 $252 +$8 (+3%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m? No 100¢ 100¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 26m? No 100¢ 100¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Yes 93¢ 44¢ $236 $112 −$124 (-52%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $2,183 +$41 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $607 +$6 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $1,602 +$36 +2%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m? Jun 15 $933 +$7 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $1,860 +$5 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? Jun 15 $940 +$11 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 15 $576 +$3 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 15 $2,875 +$10 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 15 $1,411 +$8 +1%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $891 −$203 -23%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 14 $1,187 −$290 -24%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 08 $5,462 +$22 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 08 $610 +$13 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $590 +$10 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $255 +$2 +1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $1,216 +$273 +22%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $6,171 +$52 +1%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 08 $110 +$2 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,535 +$3 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $2,576 +$15 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $2,588 +$29 +1%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? Jun 07 $233 +$2 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 06 $757 −$571 -75%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the April film with the highest Jun 05 $328 +$4 +1%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 01 $1,670 +$9 +0%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? Jun 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? Jun 01 $505 +$7 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 01 $7,226 +$127 +2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 49m? Jun 01 $2,269 +$13 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 35m? Jun 01 $3,545 +$15 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 01 $2,482 +$15 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha Jun 01 $189 +$2 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $3,697 +$65 +2%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 27 $2,831 +$6 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $1,197 +$20 +2%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than May 27 $904 +$50 +6%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10. May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? May 27 $1,103 +$17 +2%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m? May 27 $1,817 +$5 +0%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 16m? May 27 $553 +$1 +0%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m? May 27 $343 +$5 +1%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? May 27 $94 +$1 +1%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 27 $3,686 +$44 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $117 +$1 +1%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 26 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $75 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 98¢ $780 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 97¢ $570 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 93¢ $133 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 95¢ $476 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 95¢ $6 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 95¢ $95 2h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 99¢ $108 3h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 99¢ $90 8h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 BUY No 99¢ $23 8h
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? BUY No 99¢ $99 12h
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 12h
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? BUY No 100¢ $118 13h
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 13h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 100¢ $153 13h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 BUY No 100¢ $115 13h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 24m? BUY No 100¢ $4 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 100¢ $86 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 BUY No 100¢ $47 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6 BUY No 100¢ $60 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 BUY No 100¢ $80 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 100¢ $40 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5 BUY No 100¢ $47 15h
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 100¢ $207 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,566.41 · official $10,566.41 (match) · 3500 history records