Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xab26…c0fb politics 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$7
other 26% −$5
world 15% −$2
economics 13% $0
sports 9% −$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$915) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage87d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 26 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,094 −$2 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 25 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 06 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e May 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $901 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $862 −$2 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr May 02 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $856 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $848 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $907 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $915 −$2 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan? Apr 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 2h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,151 2h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,123 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $864 2h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 3h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 3h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,102 15h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 15h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 15h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 16h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 16h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 99¢ $19 16h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 16h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 16h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $822 16h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $323 17h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 99¢ $19 17h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 17h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $86 51d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $74 51d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 51d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $12 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records