Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab27…ab66 other 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$665 (+1%) realized +$668 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate72%155W / 60L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$123
14 days+$94
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$158
politics 28% +$684
world 23% −$242
tech 7% −$22
weather 4% +$33
economics 4% +$14
sports 2% −$6
finance 1% +$9
culture 1% +$18
crypto 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 60% 40% -7.9%
≤30d 19 -10.3% -18.8% 74% 16% -8.3%
≤90d 184 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 16% -8.3%
all 215 -2.6% -11.9% 72% 17% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 17% -8.2%
10% -20.3% 8% -17.0%
15% -28.0% 5% -25.0%
20% -35.1% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$2,275
Realized+$668
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses155 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 219
History coverage101d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,000 $1,999 −$1 (-0%)
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $161 $165 +$4 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 68¢ $115 $108 −$7 (-6%)
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? No 67¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $5,827 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $933 +$189 +20%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 09 $233 −$139 -60%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 08 $829 +$80 +10%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 08 $162 +$11 +7%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $405 +$20 +5%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $993 +$104 +10%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 03 $799 +$19 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$11 +124%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 31 $984 +$67 +7%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $312 +$9 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $1,521 +$72 +5%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $203 −$203 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 23 $178 +$11 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 19 $98 +$22 +23%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $430 +$28 +6%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $146 +$10 +7%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $497 +$24 +5%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $475 +$19 +4%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $2,123 +$30 +1%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 13 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $6 +$14 +233%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1,751 +$162 +9%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 10 $74 +$17 +23%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 10 $24 +$6 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 05 $116 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? May 05 $53 −$2 -4%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 04 $6 +$1 +17%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $193 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 03 $6,791 +$2 +0%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $441 +$5 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 02 $101 −$7 -7%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 01 $40 $0 +1%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? May 01 $685 +$14 +2%
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $30 −$27 -87%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 01 $98 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $87 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $66 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $42 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $23 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 23h
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 80¢ $26 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,195 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $696 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $498 42h
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 3d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 75¢ $20 4d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 77¢ $46 5d
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 5d
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections BUY Yes 80¢ $2 5d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,274.61 · official $2,274.61 (match) · 1295 history records